Latekick morning-line odds

The "LK M/L" column contains our own morning-line odds.

What are these odds?

The LateKick M/L odds are what we consider to be 'bettable odds'. The official M/L odds are compiled by an employee at the track, our own M/L odds are calculated on the basis of a quantitative model.

How are these odds calculated?

We use a quantitative model with more than 100 factors to calculate realistic odds of each horse in the race. The exact list of factors is proprietary, and is based on both fundamental handicapping principles (speed, class, form, pace, human connections) and personal insights. Naturally, the predictive ratings that are available on this site, are important for the calculation of the Latekick M/L odds.

How can I use these LK odds to my benefit?

Profitable handicapping is all about finding "value". "Value" is defined as the difference between a horse's true chance of winning, and how the betting market evaluates the horse's chance of winning. If the difference is positive, you have found "value". Of course, the one caveat is that a horse's true chance of winning is a theoretical quantity which can only ever be estimated. The Latekick odds, M/L odds and offical live Tote odds are exactly that: each are an estimate of a horse's chance of winning.

A straightforward application of this follows: if a horse is 15/1 on the tote, and the Latekick odds are 4/1, the Latekick model says that you have found value and you should back the horse at 15/1.

Is there anything to look out for?

Yes! The odds are computer-generated and as such automatically calculated. While all calculations have been thoroughly tested, they are still dependent on the amount of information that is available for each horse. To give an extreme example: in a race for 2 year olds where all horses have had only 1 run over different surfaces, tracks and distances, there is a signifcant danger that many horses' abilities are not fully known yet. In such and similar cases, caution is advised. Suppose the tote price for a particular horse is 6/5 and the LK M/L odds are 50/1 ... the reason for discrepancy is likely to lie in the lack of reliable/relevant data for the horse and I would usually accept the betting public's opinion of the horse as being superior to the model's evaluation of the horse.

It is also necessary to remember that the Latekick odds are calculated on the basis of official early information. They do not take into account changing circumstances such as: SCRATCHES, SURFACE/DISTANCE/GOING CHANGES, JOCKEY CHANGES, OVERWEIGHTS.

Finally, and very importanly, the Latekick odds are not a subsitute for common sense! They are a great tool for helping you find betting value, but they are not the absolute truth. You will still need to follow other steps in your handicapping process, and do some basic checks - especially in the case of wide discrepancies.